The Guy You 'Need' To Have
In a year of Saquon & Chase, you're not doomed without them.
The Guy You ‘Need’ To Have
Last year, you ‘needed’ to have Amari Cooper or George Pickens. Was it possible for someone to advance from their pod without these players? Of course, but when you score 34.5 & 46 points respectively you gain a newfound reputation as the infamous player that propelled hundreds of teams to the next round and prevented thousands of teams from advancing..
In the playoff weeks advancing to the next round is naturally incredibly difficult. You’re going up against teams with some of the same players as you making someone low owned that has a top five score at their position a potential game changer.
There are dozens of players that can be nominated as the guy you need to have and I’m going to give my most compelling cases for five different players:
1) Jaxon Smith Njigba aka JSN
JSN is somehow the Mr. Miyagi of Best Ball Fantasy Football teachers. Last year, he disappointed fantasy football owners and that hurt me specifically because I dedicated 36% of my portfolio to teams with JSN on them. I thought the lesson there was to not build your portfolio around a rookie with so many mouths to feed. It turned out, the lesson was to not invest in wide receivers in a Shane Waldron offense.
After seeing what he’s done so far in year two, I can say that this industry wide player stance was the definition of We Weren’t Wrong, Just Early.
A We Weren’t Wrong, Just Early bumper sticker for JSN is overdue. The prospect profile was great, and he had a better collegiate season with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave as teammates. There were true reasons to believe that JSN could be a star.
It turns out, he’s a fucking star.
JSN looks like Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s given quick first read looks over and over and over again. AND he’s a YAC machine. He ranks 7th out of all wide receivers in YAC with 380 yards - Ja’Marr Chase is blowing everyone out of the water with 620 yards - and he ranks 9th in Yards per Route Run with 1.96 when you filter for players that have a healthy sample of at least 390 routes run.
If you’re not familiar with Yards per Route Run, here’s ChatGPT’s response after I asked it to act like a fantasy football expert and to explain Yards per Route Run to me:
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) is a key efficiency metric used in fantasy football to evaluate how productive a wide receiver (or tight end) is on a per-route basis. It measures the average number of receiving yards a player gains for every route they run during a game or season.
Formula:
YPRR=Total Receiving Yards / Routes Run
What It Tells You:
Efficiency Over Volume: YPRR accounts for how effective a player is when they are on the field running routes, regardless of how many targets they get.
Target Quality & Usage: Players with high YPRR are typically earning targets in favorable situations or creating significant yardage after the catch.
Role in Offense: A high YPRR can indicate a player’s role in the offense is impactful, even if they aren't seeing massive target volume.
Examples of Application:
Breakout Potential: If a player with limited playing time posts a high YPRR, it signals they could produce big numbers with an expanded role.
Spotting Inefficiencies: A low YPRR might indicate the player is running routes but not being targeted effectively or isn't maximizing opportunities.
Comparing Players: Instead of just looking at raw stats (like total yards), YPRR lets you compare efficiency between players, especially those in different offensive systems.
Thresholds:
Elite: 2.5+ YPRR (e.g., Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill)
Very Good: 2.0–2.4 YPRR
Average: 1.5–1.9 YPRR
Below Average: <1.5 YPRR
Fantasy Impact:
In fantasy football, targeting players with strong YPRR, particularly in underutilized roles, can help identify undervalued assets. For example:
A player like Amon-Ra St. Brown, who consistently ranks highly in YPRR, can be trusted as a reliable WR1.
Conversely, a player with high routes run but low YPRR (like some inefficient deep threats) might not be worth a starting spot.”
That’s a pretty good explanation. Which should tell you that JSN is most definitely a star who his team needs to perform if they want to make the playoffs. Forget about fantasy for a second, Seattle is fighting for a playoff spot.
They get two home games in a row against the Packers and the Vikings. Those are going to be quite obviously very difficult games for Seattle and then they go on the road against Caleb Williams and The Bears.
These games are tough but in Seattle’s four game winning streak JSN has averaged 15.1 Underdog Fantasy Points (half PPR). If we include the two games played before their four game winning streak in this sample where he had 9.9 points against Buffalo and 33.5 points against the Rams, JSN is averaging 17.3 Underdog Fantasy Points.
This guy has been their engine and they’ll be relying on him to secure their playoff berth.
They also had a three game winning streak in the beginning of the year and that was when Zach Charbonnet was their offense’s engine.
2) Zach Charbonnet
When Kenneth Walker III misses games, Zach Charbonnet is a locked and loaded starter based on the opportunity he gets.
In the three games that Kenneth Walker has missed, Zach Charbonnet has averaged 18 carries and 5.3 Targets. With that opportunity, he’s turned in an average of 87.7 yards on the ground and 35.3 yards in the air!
Charbonnet has also fallen into the endzone every time that Walker has missed. Quite honestly, this is the least impressive part. Touchdowns are random, but the more opportunity a player gets obviously the more likely they are to score. Charbonnet becomes a focal point of this offense in games that Kenneth Walker misses. He missed Thursday and Friday’s practice - if he doesn’t play, Zach Charbonnet could easily be the guy you need just to get into the Semi Finals.
I’m incredibly interested in all three of Seattle’s games in the fantasy football playoffs because I think their offense will continue to support fantasy stars.
Charbonnet was a slightly positive advancement rate player in Best Ball Mania at 18.5% and JSN was an above average advancement rate player at 23%.
This is pretty crucial because that means there could be pods where you are the only person with these guys or that it’s just you and one or two other teams out of the thirteen teams in your Best Ball Mania pod.
3) Nico Collins
This may seem like an obvious choice but let’s go off of my last point with JSN and Charbonnet’s advancement rates - Nico’s is even lower at 15%.
I have a Best Ball Mania team where there’s one other Nico team in my pod and another team where I’m the only Nico team in my pod.
That’s the beauty of getting a team through with a low advancement rate stud.
I don’t want you to read this list and think I don’t like Ja’Marr Chase, I love Chase, he’s on 46% of my advancing teams. But that’s the point, he’s 50% owned in Best Ball Mania - which means Ja’Marr Chase going off isn’t as valuable because you’re still competing with typically anywhere from two to five other Chase teams.
I’m in a pod where there’s a total of seven Chase teams, that’s fucking crazy.
So if the question is would I rather be the team without Nico Collins and with Ja’Marr Chase even though six other teams have Chase OR would I rather be the only Nico Collins team and not have Chase?
Well, if you don’t know my answer, then you won’t understand why Ja’Marr Chase isn’t on this list.
And to be clear, in the pod where I’m the only Nico Collins team, I also have Ja’Marr Chase.
Nico Collins is number two in receivers average Fantasy Points Per Game and he’s only behind you guessed it, Ja’Marr Chase.
They play Miami post BYE in what will be a competitive game at home. Nico is now three games removed from his hamstring injury and went into the bye with an 8 reception 119 yard performance.
Nico is their alpha and he’s gonna be huge for your Best Ball playoff teams.
4) Anthony Richardson
Typically the players you need to have in Best Ball are spike week receivers, but I wanted to approach this thoughtfully and think through the extent that ownership in your pods affect your advancement rate to the semis and to the finals. This is why I spiced it up with non receivers in Charbonnet and Anthony Richardson.
I think Richardson ties into many Best Ball themes; once again, we weren’t wrong, just early.
Anthony Richardson had a phenomenal start to his career flashing signs of MVP Cam Newton and also showing glimors of ultimate ‘What the Fuck were you thinking’ type of moments. However, one thing remains true about Richardson.
He’s a freak athlete.
Ultimately, the Joe Flacco experience wasn’t worth committing to and I think Shane Steichen might be saving his job through the offense that he’s designing with Richardson.
Anthony Richardson is 22 years old, he’s bound to make mistakes. He’s only played thirteen games in his career, but in five of those games he scored over 21 fantasy points.
You’re telling me that 38% of the time he scores at least 21 fantasy points and his team is somehow still alive for the playoffs? How could you not be excited about having Richardson on your teams, there’s certainly a chance that he’s the guy you need.
I understand that quarterbacks don’t usually separate, but when they do, it’s running quarterbacks.
Richardson is on 7.2% of BBM playoff teams. Which means if you have him, there’s certainly a chance that no one else has him.
Steichen was the offensive coordinator for Jalen Hurts, he understands how to design a system for his dual threat quarterback, I think in these must win games he’s going to build around his weapons.
5) Josh Downs
Speaking of the Colts weapons, Downs has had a pretty solid year. At the beginning of the year, I saw different analysts float the idea that Josh Downs is better than JSN and that this shouldn’t be controversial.
I disagree.
I think they’re both great ballplayers and that Shane Waldron held back JSN in year one and that Ryan Grubb is elevating him in year two.
Josh Downs does a lot of things well and Shane Steichen has known what to do with him in both years of his career.
Downs is tied 5th in target share with a 27% target share. Other players that have a 27% target share; Chase, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Davante Adams, and George Pickens.
He commands targets at a high level and also ranks third in ESPN’s open score.
Open score is a metric that quantifies a player’s ability to get open. He’s only behind Malik Nabers and his teammate, AD Mitchell.
With Downs back from a shoulder injury, I think he will once again become a focal point of their offense as they try to at least win three out of their next four games with hopes of making the playoffs.
They have four very friendly matchups against The Broncos, home versus The Titans, on the road against The Giants and they end their season at home against The Jaguars.
They’re going to do what they can to run the offense the way they like to run the ball and find Downs to perpetually move the chains. Occasionally, they’ll take their deep shot but that’s not their identity.
They run and they give Richardson easy throws to hide his poor decision making and lack of experience.
Josh Downs is yet to have a monster game this season but he can certainly have 25+ points in the playoff weeks thus being the guy you need to have.